The Impact of AI, Revisited (2018 → 2026)
An update to my September 2018 post, The Impact of AI . Eight years later In September 2018 I wrote a short post asking three questions about AI and jobs. ChatGPT was still four years away, and self-driving cars were my main example. This is that post, revisited. I kept the three questions and graded my own answers. Then I added the two topics I only pointed at back then: universal basic income and the post-scarcity economy. Will AI only replace monotonous, repetitive work? 2018 me: No. It starts there and heads for more complex jobs. 2026 verdict: right, and I undersold it. The driving example aged well. By March 2026 Waymo was giving 500,000 paid driverless rides a week across 10 US cities, up from 50,000 in May 2024 ( TechCrunch ). What I got wrong is the order. I assumed physical, routine work would go first. AI went for writing, code, analysis and support instead, the desk work that looked safe in 2018. So far the damage is at the entry point. Stanford researchers usin...